近年来我国泥石流灾害时空分布规律及成因分析

中国是世界上遭受泥石流灾害最为严重的国家之一，灾害发生数量大，造成的人员伤亡和财产损失较高，同时监测和防治难度极大。本文收集了2005-2015年间发生的全部泥石流灾害共计10 927起，对灾害发生时间、地点、灾害规模、灾害损失以及灾害成因进行了统计，发现泥石流灾害具有近年来发生数量明显下降、集中分布在西部和东南沿海省份、特大型和大型灾害损失最为惨重等时空分布特点及成灾特点。通过对具体案例剖析后发现，预警技术有待提高、山区城镇建设场地选址不当、多年来泥石流灾害防治标准偏低、震区灾害防治形势严峻、灾害防治意识淡薄为我国泥石流灾害危害严重的主要原因。同时，我国正在积极应对泥石流灾害的威胁，如：主动提高震区泥石流灾害防治标准，研发新型的拦挡技术；研发具备实时可视化等功能的监测预警系统，提高监测预警效率；提高群众防灾意识，大力发展群测群防监测预警体系；转变观念，将泥石流灾害防治与城镇化发展规划有机结合。

The study on temporal and spatial distribution law and cause of debris flow disaster in China in recent years

China is one of the countries in the world suffering from serious debris flow disasters. The debris flow disaster not only happens frequently, but also causes heavy casualty and property loss. The disaster, meanwhile, is very difficult to prevent and monitor. This study collected data of all debris flow disasters occurred in China from 2005 to 2015, and analyzed the times, places, scales, losses and causes of these debris flow disasters. The following characteristics can be concluded: there was a clear downward trend in debris flow occurrence in recent years; the debris flow disasters were mainly distributed in the western and southeastern coastal provinces; and large or mega scale debris flow disasters suffered heavy losses. Through the analysis of specific cases, the main reasons for the serious damage caused by debris flow were found to be the following: inadequate monitoring and early warning systems; improper placement of urban construction sites in the mountainous areas; low standards for disaster prevention and control; poor earthquake disaster management; and weak public awareness of disaster prevention. At the same time, China is actively responding to the threat of debris flow by enhancing the prevention and control standards in earthquake prone regions, inventing a number of new flow blocking technologies, developing monitoring and warning systems with real time visualization capabilities for better efficiency, increasing the public awareness of disaster prevention, and vigorously developing the mass monitor networks and disaster prevention and warning systems. There is also a paradigm change in the debris flow disaster management strategy involving integrating disaster prevention and control into urbanization planning.