中国省级人口迁移及其对城市化的影响

本文回顾了建国以来省级人口迁移和城市化的主要变化过程,分析了导致这些变化的主要原因;根据1987年1%人口抽样调查资料,应用马尔柯夫模型预测中国未来省级人口迁移过程及其对未来省级城市化的影响。

PROVINCIAL MIGRATION AND ITS IMPACT ON URBANIZATION IN CHINA

Through analysis on the historical population data from 1954 to 1984,the paper illustrates the main changes of provincial population migration in China and the major causes of" those changes,The paper divided the data into 4 periods,1.1954-1959.It was a period when the first Five-year-planning program was carried out and the movement of "Great Leap Forward" took place in China.Most provinces in Northeast China,North China and Northwest Chin?got an unprecedented big number of net imigrants.But because the migration was mainly Rural-Urban one,so even the provinces with net out-migrants had increased its urbanization level,2.1960-1971.This was a period when the first economic adjustment policy was implemented and "Cultural Revolution" occurred in China,Migration direction was therefore more or less reverse to that of 1950''s as the previous migrants return,and the urbanization degrees in most provinces dropped down,3.1972-1979.It was a period when political changes and economic development fluctuated very frequently in China,The urbanization degree in every province in the period changed quite small and the absolute change in most provinces were lower than 1%.4.1980-1987.It was a period when China issued and implemented a series of new policies.The provincial migration pattern was reversed to that of other periods at first time.In consequence,the urbanization degrees in most coastal provinces were greatly enhanced.Based on the data of China 1% Population Sample Survey of 1987,the paper,in the second part,projects the provincial population migration and its impact on urbanization degrees of every province by the year of 2000 using Markov Chain Model