盐城麋鹿生态旅游区游客变化特征及预测

生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用，并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架，提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例，集成多种数学方法，进行了游客序列的分解、调整和综合预测的实证 分析。运用Tramo/Seats 方法进行季节调整分析可有效提取时间序列各组分，从而获得了不同尺度的作用模式，所获得的去噪序列为预测研究提供了基础资料。基于ARIMA 模型、Winter 加法模型、Winter 乘法模型和Tramo/Seats 模型的综合预测表明，麋鹿生态旅游区未来两年年平均新增游客数量在1.95-3.14 万人次之间。各方法预测结果间的差异与其建模思路及实现方法有关，因此集成多种方法进行预测，并进行对比分析，有助于获得对游客波动变化更为全面的认识，同时所提供的多种可能预测方案，可为生态旅游区容量控制、旅游环境资源的保护与开发及旅游区的管理决策提供参考依据。

Forecasts of Tourist Flow Features in Eco-tourism Area: A Case Study of Yancheng David's Deer Eco-tourism Area

The number of touris ts is one of the key indexes in measuring the development of eco-tourism area . By s tudying touris t flow and its variation law and by analyzing the flow s eries to predict its trend, s cientific references could be provided for the area's planning, decis ion-making, protection, exploration and operational management. The development of eco-tourism area is subject to the interactions of a number of certainties and uncertainties , which is reflected via obs ervational touris t flow s eries . This paper es tablishes a touris t s erial analys is framework and puts forward its theoretic model. Taking Yancheng eco-tourism area for David's deer in J iangsu Province as a s tudy cas e , the paper applies various mathematic methods to dis compose , readjus t and synthetically forecas t touris t s eries . The Tramo/Seats method is us ed to undertake seasonal regulation analys is for extracting each component of time s eries , hence obtaining functional models at various s cales of long-term trend with s easonal, periodic and irregular variations . Moreover, the internal law of touris t flow fluctuation in eco-tourism area and its correlation between its influenting factors are analyzed, and thus we get the nois e elimination s eries which provides foundation for a forecas t s tudy. The synthetic forecas t results obtained by applying ARIMA model, Winter addition model, Winter multiplication model and Tramo/Seats model indicate an annual average increase of 19.5-3.14 thous and touris ts in the coming two years , coinciding with the former s eries . The differences in forecas t results between each method are relevant to the modeling thoughts and means of realization, this paper collects various methods to render forecas ts and analys is in order to gain more comprehens ive knowledge about touris t flow fluctuation. Furthermore , the various pos s ible forecas ts could offer references for capacity control, protection and exploration of tourism environmental resources and decis ion-making of tourism management.