两种模式在风电场风速预测应用中的对比

利用2011年12月至2012年11月贺兰山风电场测风塔实测资料和同期WRF、BJ-RUC模式预测结果,对2种模式在风速预测中的应用进行对比分析。结果发现,月尺度上,2种模式预测的风速月均值普遍较实测值高,且WRF较BJ-RUC更接近实测值;WRF预测的月平均风速标准差普遍较实测低,而BJ-RUC普遍比实测大;春季WRF预测效果整体上较BJ-RUC好,其它季节WRF预测的月平均风速均方根误差较BJ-RUC的小,但与实测风速的相关性较BJ-RUC与实测风速相关性差。日尺度上,凌晨至中午前后和傍晚至前半夜2个时段,2种模式预测风速普遍比实测值大,而中午至傍晚时分正相反,预测值普遍较实测小。2种模式对〉12 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最小,其次是3~12 m·s^-1,〈3 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最大,但BJ-RUC对3~12 m·s^-1范围风速的变化趋势把握能力较好。WRF和BJ-RUC都普遍低估了1~4 m·s^-1风速段的频次,对5~10 m·s^-1范围频次普遍明显高估,对10 m·s^-1以上风速,WRF预测频次较实测低,而BJ-RUC预测频次则较实测高。BJ-RUC对该区风向的预测能力较WRF好。

Application and Comparison of WRF and BJ-RUC Models on Wind Speed Forecast in Wind Power Field

Based on the observational wind data of Helanshan mountain wind power field from December 2011 to November 2012 and forecasted wind data of the same period by WRF and BJ- RUC models,the applications of two models in wind speed and wind direction forecasting were comparatively analyzed. The results showed that the monthly average wind speeds forecasted by WRF and BJ-RUC models were generally higher than the observation value,and the forecasted wind speed of WRF was more close to the observation than that of BJ- RUC. The standard deviations of wind speed forecasted by WRF were generally lower than the observation values,while that of BJ- RUC were generally larger than the observation. The prediction effects of WRF were better than BJ- RUC in spring,and the root mean squared errors（ RMSE） of the monthly average wind speed forecasted by WRF were smaller than that of BJ- RUC in summer,autumn and winter,while the correlation of wind speed between observation and forecasted values by WRF model was worse than that with BJ- RUC. On daily scale,from the early morning to noon and evening to midnight,the forecasted wind speed of WRF and BJ- RUC models were generally higher than the measured value,while these were generally smaller than the observations from noon to evening. RMSE of wind speed greater than 12 m·s^-1orecasted by two models was the minimum,followed by 3- 12 m·s^-1while that was the maximum for wind speed less than 3 m·s^-1 The forecasted wind speed of two models had good correlation with the measured wind speed with 3- 12 m·s^-1and BJ- RUC model had certain advantages on trend prediction of wind speed. The frequencies of wind speed with 0- 1 m·s^-1nd 4- 10 m·s^-1ere generally underrated by WRF and BJ- RUC models,and were obviously overestimated to 5- 10 m·s^-1ind speed,and for wind speed of 10 m·s^-1nd above,the frequency of forecasted wind speed of WRF model was lower than the observation,while that of BJ- RUC was higher than the actual. The ability of forecasted wind direction by BJ- RUC was bette