Reverse tracing of precursors and earthquake precursors in Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the precursors of large earthquakes in the eastern region of Taiwan by means of the reverse tracing of precursors. We discuss the parameters which are suitable for the seismic chains and intermediate-term patterns in this region and obtain the threshold of the patterns. Applying the linear discriminate method to the intermediate-term patterns of seismic chains, we present an approach for exploring the precursors of large earthquakes. The results show that this method can reduce the false alarm rate for large earthquakes in this region, and the reverse tracing of precursors can be applied to the eastern region of Taiwan. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (10371012).