湖陆风效应为主导的地面弱风预报方法

对博斯腾湖东南陆地风场数据进行计算,结合湖陆风效应初步建立夏半年各月风场日变化模型,得出风场日变化的4个典型时段。结果表明,区域测站一致性系数和风场有较好的对应关系,一致性系数小于50说明风向不稳定且风速较小,一致性系数大于80说明风向趋于稳定且风速一般较大,弱风时段主要出现在日出日落前后,且具有2h左右的持续时间。该方法为该地区弱风时段预报提供了思路,在稳定的高压脊形势下效果尤为明显。

Ground Weak Wind Forecasting Method Dominated by Lake-land Breeze Effect

For the calculation of the wind field data of the southeastern land of Bosten Lake, combined with the effect of the lake- land breeze, the daily variation model of the wind field in each summer half year is established, and four typical periods of the daily variation of the wind field are obtained. The results show that the regional station consistency coefficient has a good correspondence with the wind field. The consistency coefficient less than 50 indicates that the wind direction is unstable and the wind speed is small. The consistency coefficient is greater than 80, indicating that the wind direction tends to be stable and the wind speed is generally large. The weak wind period mainly occurs before and after sunrise and sunset, and has a duration of about 2h. This method provides an idea for the forecast of weak wind periods in the region, especially in the case of stable high-pressure ridges.