春小麦干热风灾害监测指标与损失评估模型方法探讨——以宁夏引黄灌区为例

利用小麦干热风观测资料和产量统计年鉴，结合民政部门灾害历史资料，运用产量逐级分离模拟和给定初始聚类中心的逐步筛选聚类分析方法，分别确定了宁夏引黄灌区春小麦两类干热风灾害等级判别指标，并建立了各自的等级判别方程；通过小麦抽穗扬花前的气候模拟，分离出灌浆期间两类干热风影响的产量；根据不同时期小麦受不同程度的灾害对产量的综合影响建立了综合灾害等级查询表和灾损评估模型，代入灾害综合等级，实现了监测和产量损失评估。

A Method for Monitoring Dry-hot Wind of Spring Wheat and Estimating Its Yield Losses: an Example in Irrigated Areas of Ningxia

The historic observation data of dry-hot wind of spring wheat in Yongning, Ningxia and the wheat yield recorded by Ningxia Statistics Bureau are analyzed with the aid of disaster data got from Civil Administration Department of Ningxia. The clustering analysis method sieving step by step and giving an original clustering kernel as well as a segregated method step by step of the spring wheat yields are used. The indexes for two types of dry-hot wind of spring wheat in the Ningxia irrigated areas are obtained. Then, the discriminate equations are established respectively in the different disaster grades. The yield losses of spring wheat suffered from dry-hot wind in the grouting stage are segregated by means of climate simulation before the flowering and tasselling stage. A synthetically checking table for different disaster grades is given to combining the influence between the yield loss and the disaster degrees suffered from dry-hot wind in the different wheat growth stages. An estimating yield loss model is established and the monitoring disaster and the estimating yield losses are available.