用线性预测理论研究地震中长期预报

引言长期以来,人们十分注重对地震的时间、空间序列进行研究,以探索地震发生的规律和进行预报。过去相当多的工作讨论了地震的周期性,地震在空间分布上的填空性及迁移规律问题。引入现代统计方法研究地震的时空序列,就有可能在更一般的条件下对原因和过程都尚未清楚的地震事件进行统计分析,概括出某些数学模型进行外推预测。

STUDY ON THE PROBLEM OF LONG AND MODERATE INTERVAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BY LINEAR PREDICTION THEORY

The past earthquake events being taken as a random time series, the occurred time of future great earthquakes greater than a given magnitude can be extrapolated "by filtering based on separated magnitude and linear prediction method. For this purposes, the autocorrelation of the historical earthquake time series and the cross correlation function between the historical earthquake time series and great earthquake ’ Signal’ series being calculated, the kernel function of optimal linear filtering and prediction operator are obtained by substitution into an integral equation. Predicting results of some great earthquakes in the North-South Seismic Belt in Central China, Northern China Seismic Belt and the Tienshan Seismic Belt of North-Western China are given in this paper.