分形分析法用于海湾冲淤演化预测的初步探讨

针对封闭或半封闭海湾的海岸线，引入分形分析法，预测其冲淤变化趋势。该方法基于海岸线在平衡状态下分形维数最小的思想，建立海岸线分形维数与其冲淤变化之间的相关关系，以此为依据判断海岸线所处的冲淤演化阶段，预测其发展趋势。以胶州湾为研究实例，根据海湾的面积和总岸线长度的变化情况定性分析海岸线分形维数的变化，应用上述方法预测其冲淤演化趋势，得出胶州湾将继续淤积的结论。从分析过程和预测结果2个方面对这砷方法的可行性进行讨论，初步证明这种方法的应用是合理、可行的。

A Preliminary Exploration on the Application of Fractal Aanlysis in Predicting Erosion and Deposition Trend of Bays

In this paper, the fractal analysis is used to predict the erosion and deposition trend of closed or semi-closed bays. The analysis method is based on the idea that the fractal dimension of coastline in a balanced state is the smallest, is used to establish the correlation between fractal dimension change and erosion and deposition change, and the correlation is the basis for determining the coastline erosion and deposition evolution stage and predicting the coastline development trend. Taking the Jiaozhou Bay as a study case, the qualitative analysis of coastline fractal dimension changes is made by means of the bay area and total coastline length changes, and the above method is used to predict the erosion and deposition evolution trend and to conclude that the deposition in the Jiaozhou Bay will continue. The feasibility of the method is discussed in respect of analysis process and predicted results, and the method is proved to be reasonable and feasible.