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Reliability of Lifeline Networks with Multiple Sources under Seismic Hazard
Authors:A Sevtap SelÇuk  M Semih Yücemen
Institution:(1) Dept. of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06531, Turkey;(2) Cyprus International University, Nicosia, TRNC, via Mersin 10, Turkey;(3) Present address: Dept. of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06531, Turkey
Abstract:Lifelines are networks extending spatiallyover large areas. Transportation systems, pipelines,communication and power transmission systems areexamples of lifelines. The performance of a lifelineafter a major earthquake is particularly vital for acommunity because of the emergency services that areusually required after such events. Performancemeasures are usually expressed in terms of quantitiesthat are assessed based on statistical andprobabilistic methodologies. The major performancemeasure is the probability of reaching from aspecified point to another one successfully after acatastrophic event, such as an earthquake. Evaluationof this performance measure requires a seismic hazardmethodology, capacity determination techniques andnetwork reliability assessment methods. By combiningthese three aspects in one model, it is possible tocalculate the reliability of any lifeline system underseismic danger. The aim of this paper is to present aprobabilistic model for the evaluation of the seismicreliability of lifeline networks having multiplesources. The seismic reliability of a waterdistribution system located in Bursa, Turkey isassessed in order to show the implementation of theproposed model. The numerical calculations are carriedout by the LIFEPACK software, which is developed forthis purpose.
Keywords:system reliability  network  lifelines  pipelines  earthquake  seismic hazard analysis  path set enumeration method  scale of fluctuation  spatial correlation  water distribution system
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