| 一个简单海气耦合模式预报性能评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 岳彩军,陆维松,陶丽.一个简单海气耦合模式预报性能评估[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(5):704-709. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 岳彩军 陆维松 陶丽 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（40275016）;上海市气象局科研开发项目“利用Q矢量对上海区域数值预报模式降水产品的释用研究”（0301）;上海台风研究基金项目“登陆台风定量降水预报（QPF）技术初步研究”（2003ST905） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 对改进初始强迫风场后的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报性能进行了全面评估。结果表明：1）耦合模式在20世纪90年代预报能力小于80年代；提前0～5个月的耦合模式预报能力小于同期持续预报能力，之后则相反；耦合模式对Nino3区指数预报能力最强。2）在1997／1998年El Nino事件期间，耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力大于其对中西太平洋SSTA场的预报能力，且提前0～2个月之后的耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力远远大于持续预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | Zebiak—Cane海气耦合模式 NCEP／NCAR再分析风应力距平 预报性能 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2022（2005）05-0704-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 05 28 2004 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-05-282004-11-01 |
Evaluation of the Prediction Performance of a Simple Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model |
| |
| Yue CaiJun;Liu WeiSong;Tao Li.Evaluation of the Prediction Performance of a Simple Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2005,28(5):704-709. |
| |
| Authors: | Yue CaiJun;Liu WeiSong;Tao Li |
| |
| Abstract: | The prediction performance of Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model with revised initialization impact wind field(hereafter referred to as ZCW coupled model) is evaluated completely.The results show that:1)Overall,the prediction ability(hereafter referred to as PA) of the ZCW coupled model in 1990s is worse than that in 1980s.The 0~5 months PA of the ZCW coupled model is worse than that of the persistence forecast,and vice versa for after 5 months.The PA of the ZCW coupled model to Nino3 index is the best.2)During 1997/1998 El Nino event,the PA of the ZCW coupled model to the eastern Pacific SSTA is better than both counterpart to the western Pacific SSTA and that to the persistence forecast after 2 months. |
| |
| Keywords: | Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model NECP/NCAR reanalysis wind stress anomaly prediction performance |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
