未来气候变化对中国荒漠化的潜在影响

气候变化与荒漠化间的反馈机制已成为全球研究的重点问题之一 ,减缓温室气体增加与防治荒漠化也成为全球协同行动的领域。作为一个发展中国家 ,中国的荒漠化及其防治不仅影响到全球气候变化 ,同时气候变化对中国的荒漠化也会产生显著影响。文中采用全国 1914个气象站的数据作为基线数据 ,在根据植被区划图在青藏高原上对Thornthwaite方程做适当订正的基础上 ,选择未来两个具代表性的年份 (2 0 30年和 2 0 5 6年 )用HadCM 2模型来预测全球变化框架下中国未来荒漠化生物气候类型区的变化。结果表明 ,各生物气候类型区的面积基本上均呈增加的趋势 ,其中以亚湿润干旱区增加为主 ,半干旱区次之。与 1990年的 395 6 5 81万km2 的荒漠化生物气候类型区面积相比 ,在GHGs年增量为 1%且考虑硫酸盐溶胶影响的情况下 ,2 0 30年和 2 0 5 6年分别提高了 11 33%和12 94% ,而在GHGs年增量为 0 5 %且考虑硫酸盐溶胶影响的情况下 ,则分别提高了 3 75 %和6 95 % ,比前者分别减少了 7 5 8和 5 99个百分点。虽然在GHGs年增量 0 5 %的减少情况下 ,中国未来荒漠化生物气候类型区面积扩大和程度加剧的速度有所减缓 ,但其总体增加仍很显著。因此进一步开展气候变化与荒漠化间相互作用的研究 ,并用以指导中国的荒漠化防治工?

THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON DESERTIFICATION IN CHINA

The feedback mechanism between climate change and desertification has become one of research focuses all over the world, and the reduction of GHGs emission and the combat against desertification have become a global cooperation field. As one of developing countries, China's desertification and its control influences on global climate change; and climate change also influences on desertification in China. In this paper, data from 1914 meteorological stations nationwide are selected as baseline data; and on the basis of the revision of Thornthwaite Equation in Qinghai|Tibet Plateau using Vegetation Division Map, the HadCM2 model is used to predict the change of desertification|prone bioclimatic zones in 2030 and 2056. The result shows that the areas of all the desertification|prone bioclimatic zones have a tendency to increase, and the increasing tendency of the dry sub|humid area is the highest and that of semi|arid areas the second. Compared to the 3956 581 thousand square kilometers of desertification|prone bioclimatic zones in 1990, in the case of 1 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs with sulphate aerosol effect, the areas will be increased by 11 33 percent and 12 94 percent in 2030 and 2056 respectively; whereas in the case of 0 5 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs with sulphate aerosol effect, the areas will be increased by 3 75 percent and 6 95 percent in 2030 and 2056 respectively; the latter will be to 7 58 and 5 99 percentage less than the former. Keeping the 0 5 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs under human alleviation activities, the increasing rate of desertification|prone bioclimatic zones does slow down, but the total increasing amount is still significant. Hence, further reinforcement of climate|desertification|related researches will be helpful to establish the positive feedback between the combat against desertification and the reduction of annual increasing rate of GHGs, which will contribute to environmental protection in China and in the world