The impact of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in the western Mediterranean: an ensemble study with two regional climate models |
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Authors: | M A Gaertner O B Christensen J A Prego J Polcher C Gallardo M Castro |
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Institution: | (1) Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, ES;(2) Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, DK;(3) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, ES;(4) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France, FR |
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Abstract: | A deforestation experiment is performed over the western Mediterranean, applying two different RCMs with differing domains
and an ensemble technique to obtain a measure of their internal variability. The internal variability is used to assign statistical
significance to the results, and also to discuss whether the models are sufficiently free to develop internal mesoscale processes.
Considerable internal variability values found for hydrological variables even in autumn and winter seem to support the assumption
that the models are free enough to be applied to such a sensitivity study. The combined use of two models, with strongly differing
domains, and significance assigned through the use of internal variability should highlight responses to deforestation which
are of physical origin and not a result dependent on one particular model. The overall significant response from both RCMs
to deforestation is a reduction of evaporation (spring and summer, extending over the whole deforested zone) and a decrease
in precipitation (late spring and summer, over some regions). A detailed analysis over subzones shows remarkable agreement
between the two models over some of these subzones, showing non-local effects in precipitation response.
Received: 8 February 2000 / Accepted: 12 January 2001 |
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