Regional flood frequency and spatial patterns analysis in the Pearl River Delta region using L-moments approach |
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Authors: | Tao Yang Chong-Yu Xu Quan-Xi Shao Xi Chen |
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Institution: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, The People’s Republic of China;(2) State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China;(3) Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;(4) Mathematical & Information Sciences, CSIRO, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia;(5) The Institute of Hydraulic Engineering of Yellow River, Zhengzhou, 450003, China |
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Abstract: | The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has one of the most complicated deltaic drainage systems with probably the highest density of
crisscross-river network in the world. This article presents a regional flood frequency analysis and recognition of spatial
patterns for flood-frequency variations in the PRD region using the well-known index flood L-moments approach together with
some advanced statistical test and spatial analysis methods. Results indicate that: (1) the whole PRD region is definitely
heterogeneous according to the heterogeneity test and can be divided into three homogeneous regions; (2) the spatial maps
for annual maximum flood stage corresponding to different return periods in the PRD region suggest that the flood stage decreases
gradually from the riverine system to the tide dominated costal areas; (3) from a regional perspective, the spatial patterns
of flood-frequency variations demonstrate the most serious flood-risk in the coastal region because it is extremely prone
to the emerging flood hazards, typhoons, storm surges and well-evidenced sea-level rising. Excessive rainfall in the upstream
basins will lead to moderate floods in the upper and middle PRD region. The flood risks of rest parts are identified as the
lowest in entire PRD. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, the stationarity and serial-independence are tested prior
to frequency analysis. The characterization of the spatial patterns of flood-frequency variations is conducted to reveal the
potential influences of climate change and intensified human activities. These findings will definitely contribute to formulating
the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of
frequently emerged floods and well-evidenced sea level rising. |
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