水库群供调水系统实时调度研究

以大连市复杂水库群供、调水系统为背景,在对系统特性分析的基础上,提出了系统实时调度框架及二层耦合结构模式,设计了以"总量控制、耦合嵌套、多维决策、滚动修正"为核心的实时调度流程。在径流预报方面,提出了基于超越概率的水库群供、调水系统长期入库径流预报方法,结合中期GFS(Global Forecasting System)数值预报技术对不同时段入库径流进行滚动预报。在调度模型方面,采用基于动态规划的建模求解新方法和常规调度方法,为调度决策提供参考。实例研究表明,建立的实时调度系统实现了滚动预报和滚动调度,具备了实时性;实现了宏观总控与局部调整相结合的调度目标,具备了调度决策不同时间尺度耦合嵌套特性,证明了系统的适用性。研究成果对于同类系统实时调度具有重要参考价值。

Study of real-time scheduling of reservoir group of supply and water diversion systems

Based on the complex reservoir group of supply and water diversion systems in Dalian, the author advances the framework of a system of real-time scheduling and a coupling structure pattern. This paper considers "total amount of control, coupling nested, multidimensional decision-making, real-time correction" as the core of real-time scheduling process. In the aspect of runoff forecasting, this paper proposes the long-term inflow runoff forecast methods of reservoir group of supply and water diversion systems based on transcendental probability, combined with mid-GFS numerical prediction technology for rolling forecast incoming runoff during the different periods. In terms of a scheduling model, this paper uses the new method based on dynamic programming and conventional modeling to provide a reference for scheduling. A case study shows that this real-time scheduling system implements rolling forecast and a rolling scheduling, which proves that the system can be implemented in real time. In the real-time dispatching system, the macro total control is combined with the local adjustment of the scheduling objective and coupled with the scheduling decisions related to nested features with different time scales, thereby proving the applicability of the system. This result has important reference value for similar systems for real-time scheduling.