湖南省城市化与经济发展关系的计量分析

运用现代计量经济学的计量分析方法对湖南省城市化与经济发展的相互关系与相互作用进行了探讨。结果表明，城市化与经济发展二者之间存在协整关系即长期均衡关系，但短期失衡，其波动有近35％得到调整；经济发展对城市化的冲击强烈，其解释水平高达到82％；城市化对经济发展冲击微弱，其解释水平仅达到5．4％；经济发展来自自身的冲击较大，而城市化来自本身冲击较小，但有增强趋势。经济发展与城市化二者之间的这种关系作用应引起关注。

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS TO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF HUNAN PROVINCE

Discussed the relationship and interactions between urbanization and economic development of Hunan Province by using the method of econometric analysis in modem econometrics. The research shows that here exist long term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic development, while the things are quite dif- ferent in short term, and the range of short term equilibrium close to long term is 35% ; Economic development give a strong impulse to the urbanization, affecting index reach to 82% ; Urbanization impulse to economic development isn＇t remarkable, affecting index is just 5.4%. Economic development has a great effect to itself, urbanization has slight effect to itself, but with a strengthening trend. We should pay more attention to the relationship between urbanization and economic development.