A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2011 to August 2016. The likely location,time, and evolution of the next great earthquake with M ≥ 7.7 in Kamchatka |
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Authors: | S A Fedotov A V Solomatin S D Chernyshev |
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Institution: | 1.Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences,Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii,Russia;2.Institute of Physics of the Earth,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia |
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Abstract: | We consider the results from the ongoing 2010–2011 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based
on the pattern of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We develop a forecast for the next 5 years, from September 2011 to August
2016, for all segments of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc earthquake-generating zone. For 20 segments we predict the appropriate phases
of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A10), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probability 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, and the maximum possible magnitudes
and probability of occurrence for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study serves as another confirmation that it is entirely
necessary to continue the work in seismic retrofitting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii. |
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