Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis |
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Authors: | Ju-Liang Jin Yi-Ming Wei Le-Le Zou Li Liu Wei-wei Zhang Yu-liang Zhou |
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Institution: | (1) Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu, 610072, China;(2) School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China;(3) School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;(4) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100090, China;(5) College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China;(6) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; |
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Abstract: | Early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources is an important control measure for regional water security
management. To establish operable and quantitative forewarning model, in this paper, a new forewarning model for sustainable
utilization of water resources based on BP neural network and set pair analysis (named BPSPA-FM for short) was established.
In the proposed approach, the accelerating genetic algorithm–based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was suggested to determine
the weights of evaluation indexes, back-propagation neural network updating model was used to predict the values of the evaluation
indexes, and the set pair analysis was used to determine the function values of relative membership in variable fuzzy set
of the samples. BPSPA-FM was applied to early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources of Yuanyang
Hani terrace in Yunnan Province of China. The results show that the states of sustainable utilization in this system were
near the critical value between nonalarm and slight alarm from 1990 to 2000, the states of the system fell into slight alarm
and were rapidly close to intermediate alarm from 2001 to 2004, and the states of the system were predicted to be near the
critical value between slight alarm and intermediate alarm from 2005 to 2010. The main alarm indexes of the system were utilization
ratio of water in agriculture, control ratio of surface water, per capita water supply, per unit area irrigation water and
per capita water consumption. BPSPA-FM can take full advantage of the changing information of the evaluation indexes in adjacent
periods and the relationship between the samples and the criterion grades. The results of BPSPA-FM are reasonable with high
accuracy. BPSPA-FM is general and can be applied to early warning problems of different natural hazards systems such as drought
disaster. |
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