Forecast of Polar Stratospheric Vortex Dynamics Using the SL-AV Global Atmosphere Model |
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| Authors: | V V Shashkin |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Numerical Mathematics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia;2.Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation,Moscow,Russia;3.Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University),Dolgoprudny,Russia |
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| Abstract: | The quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up to 7 days are successful. Zonal wind reversal during minor sudden stratospheric warmings is predicted 10–11 days ahead. Overall, the situations of strong polar jet disturbances are beneficial for the forecast accuracy. |
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