由震源系统的整体稳定和局部不稳定探讨中、强地震预报

对于一个包含许多大震震源的复杂系统来说，当外界对它的供能稳定、且边界条件变化不大时，该系统处于定态。定态系统的演变过程呈线性规律，涨落水平稳定。虽然系统的宏观状态不随时间变化，但系统内部仍可发生宏观过程，并会出现局部的突变。在突变前局域往往出现非线性行为。因此定态系统的每一次涨落与其子系统的突变相对应。由定态系统的上下限可预测未来地震发生的时间和强度，由系统的非线性行为可确定其地点。本文以１９７６年松潘７．２级地震为例对所提思路和方法作了检验．应当指出，当复杂震源系统和其子系统均处于非稳定态时，则确定性预报不能进行。

ACCORDING TO ENTIRETY STABILITY AND LOCAL INSTABILITY OF FOCUS SYSTEM TO RESEARCH MODERATE STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

When environment energized stable complex system and boundary condition haven't larger change, the system, which contain many macroquake focus,is steady state. Evolution course of steady-state present linear rule and fluctuation is stable. The macroscopic state of the system haven't changed with system and arise local abrupt change. Local of area often appear nonliner behavior before sudden change. Every fluctuation of steady state system correspond to sudden of subsystem. According to upper-lower limit of stady state system can predict time and intensity of future earthquake and nonliner behavior can determin place. The think and method were tested through Songpan earthquake with Ms=7.2 in 1976.should be said:when complex focus system and its subsystem are all instabiling state,then determinnacy prediction cannot be tealized.