Risk decision-making model for reservoir floodwater resources utilization

Floodwater resources utilization (FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. To safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision-making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C–D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision-making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found using the risk decision-making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.