A long-term numerical model of morphodynamic evolution and its application to the Modaomen Estuary

Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model (PRD-LTMM-10) to study the evolution of the estuary from 1977 to 1988. The model incorporated modules for riprap-siltation promotion and waterway dredging. The model can simulate the morphodynamic evolutionary processes occurring in the Modaomen Estuary during the period of interest. We were able to isolate the long-term influences of various human engineering activities and the roles of natural factors in estuarine evolution. The governance projects had the largest effect on the natural development of the estuary, resulting in larger siltation on the west side. Installation of riprap and reclamation of submerged land resulted in scouring of the main Hengzhou Channel causing deep trough out-shift. Severe siltation narrowed the upper end of the Longshiku Deep Trough.