湖北省卫星云图短时暴雨概率预报方法及应用

利用实时红外卫星云图资料,在湖北省分区域短时暴雨云图特征分析的基础上,通过提取与短时暴雨相关的云图特征参数,结合NCEP数值预报综合判断,建立湖北省分区域0～6h卫星云图短时暴雨概率预报方法,并已投入实时业务预报应用。结果表明:所选云图特征参数能够较好的体现不同区域间短时暴雨云团特征,概率预报计算方法合理,对于短时暴雨的预报起到一定的指导作用。从预报检验看,预报方法还应在减小空报和漏报方面继续改进。

Application of Satellite Data in Probabilistic Forecasting for Short Time Rainstorms in Hubei Province

Based on the characteristic analysis of satellite images during short time rainstorm in Hubei Province, by using the real time satellite data and collecting the characteristic parameters of the images related to the short time rainstorm, a probabilistic short time rainstorm forecasting method is presented, which is regionalized with a lead time of 0 to 6 hour, in combination with NCEP numerical forecasting products. The results show that the selected characteristic parameters can reflect the different characteristics of short time rainstorms, and the calculating method is reasonable and plays a certain guidance role in short time rainstorm forecasting, but it should be improved in the aspects of false and miss forecasting rates.