基于Bossel框架的双城市地下水资源可持续利用评价

为了确定影响双城市地下水资源可持续利用的最主要因素、评价地下水资源可持续利用状况并进行预测，采用Bossel可持续评价的理论框架筛选了最能反映和影响双城市地下水资源开发利用的6大基本定向指标共36个具体评价指标，建立了考虑地下水资源、社会经济和环境系统及其之间相互关系的可持续利用评价体系。对双城市地下水资源可持续利用现状进行了评价，辅助采用数值模拟技术预报地下水流场变化趋势，进而预测评价了新地下水水源地投产5年后和10年后的可持续发展趋势。现状条件下，双城市地下水资源可持续利用态势处于绿色(良好)级别，但随着地下水开采量的不断增加，可持续利用态势逐渐恶化，由良好级别转变为危险级别。

Sustainable Utilization Assessment of Groundwater Resources in Shuangcheng City Based on Bossel Frame

In order to determine the main factors affecting the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in Shuangcheng City, and to assess and predict the situation of groundwater sustainable utilization, Bossel theoretical frame is has been employed to construct an assessment indicator system,consisting of 6 basic oriental indicators and 36 detailed indicators ,which can mostly reflect groundwater sustainable utilization in Shuangcheng City. This assessment indicator system has considered the groundwater subsystem, socioeconomical subsystem, environmental subsystem and the relationship among them. The situation of groundwater resources sustainable utilization in Shuangcheng City is assessed by this assessment indicator system， and the changing trend of groundwater sustainable utilization in 5 years and 10 years after the production of new groundwater source is also predicted based on the simulation results of the groundwater flow regime. The current situation of groundwater sustainable utilization in Shuangcheng City belongs to green class (good state) and the situation of groundwater sustainable utilization will be degrading from good to dangerous as the result of the increase of groundwater exploitation.