基于文献记录的黑河流域历史时期旱涝特征分析

流域的旱涝灾害特征及其变化规律是流域水资源演变研究的重要内容。利用历史文献资料重建了西北内陆河黑河流域公元0-1949年的旱涝灾害等级序列，结合滑动平均、小波变换处理等方法，探讨了流域历史时期旱涝等级的频数特征、旱涝变化的周期特征及其与气候冷暖和人类活动之间的关系。对公元1000年以后的旱涝灾害规律进行分析，结果表明：流域存在5个旱灾高发阶段（1230-1270年、1430-1530年、1640-1760年、1860-1890年、1900-1940年），3个涝灾高发期（1650-1690年、1730-1790年、1830-1910年），并呈现出旱涝灾害频发的态势；1000-1949年期间，流域旱涝灾害存在4个准周期变化，对比发现这与太阳黑子活动等环境变化周期有紧密的联系；1580年以前，气候冷暖是影响旱涝灾害发生的主要因子，但16世纪以后，旱涝灾害交替频发，很可能是人类活动加剧了该现象。所以，定量辨析自然因素和人类活动对流域旱涝灾害的影响将是未来研究的重点方向。

An analysis of drought and flood disasters in the Heihe River basin based on historical documents

Study on the characteristics and variation of drought and flood is very important for studying water resource evolution in a river basin. Historical documents and the records of two cities (Zhangye and Jiuquan) about watershed flood and drought were used and integrated to rebuild a drought and flood gradation sequence of the Heihe River basin from 0 to 1949 A.D., through the methods of moving average and wavelet transform processing, to understand the frequency and cycle of drought in the past and their relationships with climate and human activities in the basin. The results showed that there were five drought phases (1230-1270, 1430-1530, 1640-1760, 1860-1890, and 1900-1940) and three flood phases (1650-1690, 1730-1790 and 1830-1910). From 1000 to 1949 A.D., there were four quasi-periodic variations of drought and flood in the basin, which were closely related with solar activity. Before 1580, climate change was the main factor of drought and flood disaster. However, after the 16th century, the frequent events of alternate drought and flood seemed to be caused by human activities. Therefore, quantitatively analyzing the effects of natural factors and human activities on drought and flood disasters in the basin should be the focus of future research.