Short-term changes in the magnitude, frequency and temporal distribution of floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region during the last 45 years — Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel

Short-term changes in Eastern Mediterranean precipitation affecting flow regime were documented in Nahal Oren, a 35 km² ephemeral stream in Mt. Carmel, a 500 m high mountain ridge located at the NW coast of Israel. The rainy winter of the Mediterranean type climate (Csa) in Mt. Carmel is characterized by average annual rainfall of 550 mm at the coastal plain to 750 mm at the highest elevation while the summer is hot and dry. Stream flow generates after accumulated rainfall of 120–150 mm while “large floods”, defined as flows with peak discharge of > 5 m³ s^− 1 and/or > 150,000 m³ in volume, are generated in response to rainfall of over 100 mm. Hence, large floods in Nahal Oren stream occur not earlier than December. Precipitation and flow data were divided into two sub-periods: 1957–1969 and 1991–2003 and compared to each other. The results indicate a clear increase in the frequency of large floods, their magnitudes and volumes during the second period with no parallel change in the annual precipitation. Similarly, an increase in storm rainfall–runoff ratio from < 5% to > 15% and a decrease in the threshold rainfall for channel flow by 16–25% were documented. These short-term variations in flooding behavior are explained by the clear decrease in the length of the rainy season and by the resulting significant shortening in the duration of the dry-spells. The increase in the number of large rainfall events and the large floods in each hydrological year together with the increasing number of years with no floods indicate strengthening of their uncertainty of behavior.