中国连片特困区经济韧性测度及影响因素分析

巩固脱贫攻坚成效,提升抗风险与自我发展能力对连片特困区而言意义深远。经济韧性作为反映区域经济应对冲击时抵抗、恢复、调整及转型能力的指标,能够有效评估连片特困区的抗冲击能力和返贫风险。基于中国12个连片特困区的地市级数据,通过构建综合指标体系及核心评估变量对其经济韧性进行了测度与对比,并运用多种回归模型识别主要影响因素,结果发现:① 连片特困区经济韧性小于非连片特困区,二者虽均呈逐年递增趋势,但非连片特困区增速略快。进一步对指数分解后发现,连片特困区与非连片特困区经济韧性的差距主要来自于适应与调整能力的差异。② 罗霄山区、燕山—太行山区、大别山区经济韧性均值最高,而滇西边境山区、六盘山区、四省藏区最低,东西差异明显。③ 大部分片区经济韧性逐年递增,经济韧性越高的片区往往增速越快,但四省藏区、六盘山区、吕梁山区经济韧性出现下降趋势,其中,吕梁山区下降最明显。在对不同片区经济韧性分解后发现,不同片区间适应与调整能力差异最大,创新与转型能力差异最小。④ 地理区位、人均固定资产投资、外贸依存度、财政自给水平、地方财政教育经费支出、专利授权数等变量对连片特困区经济韧性存在显著影响。⑤扶贫政策有利于增强片区经济韧性,经济韧性较低的片区对扶贫政策的依赖程度更高,其中,四省藏区、六盘山区、滇西边境山区对扶贫政策依赖最为严重。

Measurement of economic resilience of contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China and influencing factor analysis

It is of great significance to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and enhance development capacity and the ability to resist shocks in contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Economic resilience, as an indicator of the resistance, recovery, adjustment, and transformation ability of regional economic systems in response to shocks, can effectively reflect the ability to resist shocks and the risk of returning to poverty in contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Based on the data of 12 contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China, economic resilience was measured and compared by constructing a comprehensive index system and core evaluation variables, and a variety of regression models were used to identify the main influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The economic resilience of contiguous poverty-stricken areas is lower than non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas. In both types of areas economic resilience has been increasing year by year, but the growth rate of non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas is slightly faster. After decomposing the index, it was found that the difference in economic resilience between contiguous poverty-stricken areas and non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas is primarily due to the ability to adapt and adjust. 2) Luoxiao Mountains, Yanshan-Taihang Mountains, and Dabie Mountains have the highest mean values of economic resilience, while the border mountainous areas in western Yunnan Province, Liupan Mountains, and the Tibetan area of four provinces have the lowest mean values of economic resilience. 3) The economic resilience of most areas was increasing. The areas with higher economic resilience tend to grow faster, but the economic resilience of the Tibetan area of four provinces, Liupan Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains showed a downward trend. Among them, the decline in Lvliang Mountains is the most obvious. After decomposing the economic resilience of different regions, it was found that the differences in adaptation and adjustment capabilities were the largest in different regions, and the differences in innovation and transformation capabilities were the smallest. 4) Variables such as geographical location, assets investment per capita, dependence on international trade, the level of self-sufficiency in finance, expenditure on education, and the number of patents have significant effects on the economic resilience and its growth in poverty-stricken areas. 5) Poverty alleviation policy is conducive to enhancing economic resilience. Areas with low economic resilience are highly dependent on poverty alleviation policies, among which the Tibetan areas in four provinces, Liupan Mountains, and the border mountainous areas of western Yunnan are most heavily dependent on poverty alleviation policies.