基于WRF数值模拟的夏季强对流测定方法研究

在固定时间内使WRF数值模式的预报和观测间距实现最小化,是实时准确测定夏季强对流的重要依据,因此研究一种基于WRF数值模拟的夏季强对流测定方法.通过分析河南省2018年7月2日至7月23日闪电定位资料和降水资料,统计夏季强对流天气中降水强度与闪电频数关系,将二者进行线性拟合,根据拟合结果将夏季强对流天气中闪电频数反演至降水强度,并将反演后的降水强度通过四维变分同化资料方法,同化至WRF数值模拟中,获取最终WRF极小化代价函数,实现夏季强对流天气实时准确测定.通过该方法对河南省某机场进行WRF数值模拟研究发现,模拟结果的水平风速、垂直速度、位温与扰动气压变化明显,可准确测定该机场的夏季强对流天气,具有可靠性.

Study on summer strong convection determination method based on WRF numerical simulation

Minimizing the prediction and observation spacing of WRF numerical model in a fixed time is an important basis for real-time and accurate determination of summer strong convection. Therefore, a method for measuring summer strong convection based on WRF numerical simulation is studied. Based on the analysis of lightning location data and precipitation data from July 2 to July 23, 2018 in Henan Province, the relationship between precipitation intensity and lightning frequency in summer severe convective weather is statistically analyzed, and the two are linearly fitted. According to the fitting results, lightning frequency in summer severe convective weather is inverted to precipitation intensity, and the inverted precipitation intensity is assimilated to WRF value through four-dimensional variational assimilation data method. In the simulation, the final WRF minimization cost function is obtained to realize the real-time and accurate determination of severe convective weather in summer. Through the WRF numerical simulation of an airport in Henan Province, it is found that the horizontal wind speed, vertical velocity, potential temperature and disturbance barometric pressure of the simulation results change significantly, which can accurately measure the summer severe convective weather of the airport and has reliability.