中国社会保障与经济发展耦合的时空特征及驱动力分析

利用耦合协调度模型、标准差椭圆、空间自相关等方法,研究2002—2017年中国社会保障与经济发展耦合协调的时空特征及驱动机制。结果表明：① 社会保障与经济发展之间相互适应、共同发展逐渐增强,但耦合协调度等级没有发生明显的跃迁,研究期内全国整体属于勉强耦合协调类范围,四大区域的耦合协调性呈东部地区>东北地区>中部地区>西部地区的态势。② 社会保障与经济发展的耦合协调度在东西和南北方向上收缩,向中部地区集聚的态势较明显;社会保障与经济发展的耦合协调整体上具有正的空间自相关性,局部空间自相关四种类型中,高高型集中分布在东部地区,低低型多在西部地区,高低型和低高型相对分散。③ 社会保障与经济发展的耦合协调在空间上的差异是内外部因素驱动的结果。内部驱动力中,城镇居民人均可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入和人均GDP起到关键性作用;外部驱动力中,城镇化率和民营企业就业人数起了重要作用。

Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving force of coupling social security and economic development in China

Entropy method, coupling coordination model, standard deviation ellipse model, spatial autocorrelation, etc., were used to measure the coupling coordination degree of social security and economic development in China from 2002-2017, and examine its spatio-temporal differentiation. At the same time, the influence degree and driving force were analyzed by grey correlation degree model and Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show that: (1) in terms of time series, the coupling coordination between social security and economic development in China is increasing, but lags behind the development of social security and the economy. The average annual coupling degree of the four major regions is Eastern region > Northeast region > Central region > Western region. (2) As for spatial aspects, the pattern of coupling and coordination between social security and economic development is solidified and dynamically changing, mainly due to the alternation of general maladjustment and forced coupling and coordination, and its spatial distribution has a tendency of aggregation. (3) In terms of driving force, five factors, namely, per capita disposable income of urban residents, per capita net income of rural residents, per capita GDP, urbanization rate and employment number of private economy, are the important driving forces of the coupling and coordination pattern of social security and economic development.