城市住宅空间分布模拟研究

构建城市住宅开发模拟模型（FDM）,并以北京市为案例,模拟城市住宅规模时空演化。FDM综合考虑了政策限制和市场规律模拟开发商决策行为,分4个步骤预测城市住宅面积的空间分布格局演变过程： ①假设无政府限制条件、开发商追求最大利润的前提下,预测城市住宅开发总面积;②在政府限制条件下,对上述预测结果予以修正,预测实际住宅开发总面积;③根据各区块的利润以及政策许可对住宅开发面积进行空间配置;④确定各个区块的建筑规模总量。北京案例表明,延续近几年住宅开发模式,未来住宅规模的增长主要发生在五环外,尤其是五环到六环的区域,而中心城区的开发程度较弱。一方面是由于城市中心地带已经被高度开发,土地利用空间较小;另一方面与政府疏解中心人口、缓解交通阻塞的政策有关。FDM模型的开发为城市土地利用政策的制定提供了良好的模拟分析工具,为城市空间模拟分析研究提供方法上的参考。

Modelling Urban Housing Development and A Beijing Case Study

Land use development and transportation development are important drivers of urban space policy. Land use development and management usually manifest as control over real estate development. The real estate provides a basic place for urban economic and social activities, and the scale of floorspace is an important indicator affecting urban economic activities. For this reason, floorspace development (real estate development) is arguably the most important indicator to measure the spatial distribution of activities. This study develops a four-step Floorspace Development Model (FDM) to forecast the housing floorspace distribution. Firstly, it estimates the total housing floorspace developed in a period by assuming that developers would maximize their profits under no constraints from the government. Secondly, the model estimates the constrained total housing floorspace development based on government permits. Thirdly, the model allocates the total floorspace in proportion among zones based on the profitability of alternative locations and the permits of each zone. Finally, it determines the total building size of each zone. A case study of Beijing is given subsequently. It shows that given the continuation of the past policies into the future, more and more housing floorspace would happen outside the urban area, especially between the 5th and 6th ring roads, while the degree of development in the central urban area is weak. The FDM model is able to forecast the developers’ decisions based on market rules and government policies including that where a certain type of floorspace is developed and how much is permissible. The research integrates policy restrictions with market laws, realizes simulation prediction of building development, provides scenario testing tools for related policies, and provides methodological references for urban spatial simulation analysis.