中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素

基于客观权重赋值法,从自然禀赋、流动投入、产出能力、设施机制4个维度构建指标体系,实证测算了2000—2016年中国29省农业竞争力,利用空间计量模型,剖析了中国农业竞争力时空演化规律及其影响因素,以期为制定针对性、差异化的农业竞争力提升政策提供理论支撑。结果表明:① 中国农业竞争力呈上升趋势,并存在明显的空间自相关性特征,空间溢出强度呈倒“U”型变化趋势,流动投入、产出能力两项子竞争力呈上升趋势,资源禀赋相对稳定,设施机制波动上升;② 东部省份农业竞争力异军突起,中西部省份不断下降,两级分化趋势明显,局域空间集聚格局以高—高和低—低集聚方式为主导,具有较强的稳定性与路径依赖性;③ 农民收入、居民消费水平、经济基础、R&D投入、种植结构、粮食品种选择对本省农业竞争力时空格局演变存在直接效应,对其他省份存在间接溢出效应;④ 应充分发挥农业竞争力及其影响因素的示范效应与扩散效应,推动农业资源优化配置、促进农业生产要素合理流动、谋划农业竞争力均衡发展。

Spatio-temporal evolution and its influencing factors of China's agricultural competitiveness

Based on the objective-weight value-assigning method, by means of establishing one comprehensive index system from four dimensions, namely natural endowment, flow input, output capacity and facilities' mechanism, this paper makes a series of experimental tests on the actual agricultural competitiveness within the 29 provincial-level areas of China from 2000 to 2016. And with application of spatial measurement model, it also makes a profound analysis upon spatio-temporal evolving rules and factors influencing China's agricultural competitiveness in hope for offering certain theoretical supports for formulating a series of targeted and differentiated agricultural competitiveness upgrading policies in the near future. The results of analysis show that: (1) China's agricultural competitiveness, featured by obvious spatial auto-correlation, is on the rise. The spatial spillover intensity presents an inverted "U-shaped" pattern. And the two sub-competitiveness indexes, namely flow input and output capacity, still keep on the upside. The overall resource endowment is relatively stable and the facilities' mechanism is witnessing a fluctuant increasing process. (2) The agricultural competitiveness in the central and western provinces continues to decline as that in the eastern provinces rises rapidly, which presents an apparent polarization. And the local-spatial clustering pattern is dominated by HH clustering mode and LL clustering mode with the characteristics of stronger stability and serious path dependency. (3) Multiple factors, including farmers' income, household-consuming level, economic basis, R&D input, planting structure and grain-variety selection, have direct effects on the spatio-temporal evolution of provincial agricultural competitiveness. At the same time, the above factors have indirect spillover effects on other provinces. (4) We should give full play of the current demonstration effect and diffusion effect brought by the agricultural competitiveness and related influencing factors to push future optimal allocation of agricultural resources, promote subsequent rational flow of the existing agricultural producing factors and plan finally-balanced development of agricultural competitiveness.