高铁影响下的珠江三角洲城市群经济空间格局的多维度分析

深入研究高铁对珠江三角洲(简称珠三角)城市群区域经济空间格局的影响,对挖掘高铁与区域经济耦合关系具有一定的科学价值。本文基于2010、2014、2018年珠三角地区城市面板数据,从区域经济联系、区域优势潜力及区域经济空间平稳性3个维度,运用引力模型、区位优势潜力模型、Theil系数等技术模型和方法,综合测度高铁对珠三角城市群区域经济空间格局的影响。研究结果表明:①珠三角城市间经济联系强度随年份的递增而呈现上升的趋势,南北向联系强于东西向联系,并逐渐出现1个经济联系核心区、3个经济联系副关联区和1个经济增长辐射区;②珠三角市际间区位优势潜力差距逐渐拉大,其中东莞、中山等经济实力较强、城市地域规模、人口规模较小且地理位置优越的二三线城市在高铁运营过程中获得更大的利益;③从珠三角区域经济整体差异性来看,区域经济空间格局异质性呈先扩大后缩小趋势;从区内群体差异性来看,一二线城市之间经济发展水平差异呈先大幅上升后小幅下降趋势;二三线城市之间经济发展水平差异呈下降趋势。该研究将对未来交通规划提供参考。

A Multidimensional Analysis of Economic Spatial Pattern of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration under the Influence of High-Speed Railway

High-speed rail has strong impact on the spatial pattern of regional economy in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. Exploring the coupling of high-speed rail and regional economy is thus of great scientific value. In this paper, we comprehensively quantified the impact of high-speed rail on the spatial pattern of regional economy over the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration using cities panel data in 2010, 2014, and 2018. We quantified the regional economic connection, regional advantage potential, and regional economic space stability, respectively, using gravity model, regional superiority potential model, and Theil coefficient. Our results show that: (1) the intensity of economic relations between cities in the Pearl River Delta increased over years, with a stronger economic relations along north-south direction than the east-west direction. Core zones of economic relations included Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan.The sub-zones of economic relations were represented by Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, and Huizhou. And the radiated zones of economic relations covered the whole Pearl River Delta. The regional influence of high-speed rail on the economic development of the Pearl River Delta cities was also uneven. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan, and other cities with strong economic strength occupied the core positions. As a result, the economic ties between other cities may need to be improved in the future; (2) with the construction and operation of high-speed rail, the regional advantage of each city over surrounding cities increased greatly from 2010 to 2018. However, the differences in regional advantages of each cityalso increased gradually. Dongguan, Zhongshan and other second- and third-tier cities with strong economic strength, small urban geographical scale, small population scale, and superior geographical location benefited most. These cities had great potential to be new regional growth centers in future; (3) for the overall difference of regional economy in the Pearl River Delta, the spatial heterogeneity of regional economy increased first and then decreased. For the group differences in the area, the difference of economic development levels between first-and second-tier cities showed a significant increase first and a slight decrease trend then. The difference of economic development levels between second-and third-tier cities showed a decreasing trend. The study provide useful references for future transportation planning.