雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析

厘清农户的气候变化适应行为类型以及农户属性、气候变化感知对适应行为的影响机制,对于制定合适的适应政策至关重要。论文将适应行为分为技术性行为、经济性行为和迁移性行为3类,并构建了以气候变化感知为中介变量的“属性-感知-适应”多变量路径分析模型,在对农户属性对适应行为的影响进行多元方差分析的基础上探讨了变量间的影响路径。结果表明：① 农户适应气候变化会优先选择技术性行为,其次是经济性行为,选择迁移性行为的农户最少;② 农户属性对适应行为的影响具有显著差异;③ 根据中介变量的中介效应,将多变量路径分析模型分解为3类：完全中介模型、部分中介模型和无中介模型。通过分析以上3种模型可以发现,农户属性对适应行为既有通过中介变量产生的间接影响,也有不通过中介变量产生的直接影响,说明适应行为的选择并不仅仅依赖于气候变化感知,农户属性对于适应行为的选择也是一个重要的直接影响因素。最后针对提高农户应对气候变化的能力提出了相关政策建议。

Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas

The impact of climate change is felt globally and China is no exception. Evidence indicates that natural resource-based agriculture is especially sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change due to its strong dependence on weather conditions. Climate-related events such as droughts, cold waves, hailstorms, snowfall, erratic rainfall, and fluctuation in temperature contribute to farmers' vulnerability and affect the livelihood of farming households and agricultural production on which national food security depends. Under the background of global climate change, finding reasonable and effective adaptive measures to reduce agricultural losses and increase agricultural production levels have attracted increasingly more attention. Most studies pay attention to the relationship between farmers' perceptions and adaptive behaviors, while farmers' attributes are seldom considered. Examining the types of farmers' adaptive behaviors and the influencing mechanism among farmers' attributes, perception of climate change, and adaptive behaviors is of significance for making appropriate policies. Based on recent theoretical and empirical studies in the rain-fed agricultural areas, this study constructed a path analysis model with the perception of climate change as mediator to explore the path of impact among the variables of farmers' attributes, perception of climate change, and adaptive behaviors. The results show that: 1) The surveyed farmers showed a certain degree of recognition of local climate change and some actions adapting to climate change were taken. Among these, farmers prioritize technical measures, followed by economic measures, and few farmers adopted migration as an adaptive behavior. 2) The difference in the impact of farmers' attributes on adaptive behaviors is significant. 3) According to the mediating effects of the mediator, the model of multivariate path analysis was decomposed into three types: complete mediation model, partial mediation model, and no mediation model. Through the analysis of the above three models, it was found that farmers' attributes had an indirect impact on adaptive behaviors through mediating variables, as well as a direct impact through non-mediating variables. It indicates that the choice of adaptive behaviors depended not only on the farmers' perception of climate change, but also on their attributes. Finally, relevant policy recommendations were put forward with the aim to improve farmers' ability to cope with climate change.