基于GWR模型的中国水资源绿色效率驱动机理

遵循“以人文本”的绿色发展理念,综合考虑水资源利用的经济、社会及环境效益,运用地理加权回归模型,综合选取自然、社会经济、环境、科技四大因素共19个指标,测度2000—2016年中国水资源绿色效率,并对其驱动机理进行探究。结果表明：中国水资源绿色效率存在着显著的空间正相关性和空间分布不均衡性;各因素对水资源绿色效率的影响存在着空间差异,且随着时间而变化;总体来看,产业结构、工农业发展水平、交通基础设施建设、环保投入和科技转化率等因素对中国水资源绿色效率的提高具有显著影响,人均水资源量、人口规模和污染物排放等因素的增加则限制了水资源绿色效率的提高;就其空间差异而言,水资源禀赋、人口规模等因素对西部地区水资源绿色效率的促进作用大于东部,而产业结构、用水结构、交通基础设施建设等因素对水资源绿色效率的影响程度东部大于西部。研究结果对于解决中国水资源短缺问题,因地制宜地制定适合各地区发展的水资源政策,具有重要的实际意义。

Analysis of driving mechanism based on a GWR model of green efficiency of water resources in China

Water shortage, which can greatly affect both natural systems and social development, has drawn extensive attention from governing authorities around the world, and become an urgent issue to be addressed. How to improve the green efficiency of water resources and alleviate the present situation of water shortage is the content of this study. In the concept of "people-oriented" green development, the evaluation system of green efficiency is constructed, which includes four aspects: nature, social economy, environment, science and technology. This paper, based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions of China obtained from 2000 to 2016, aims to calculate the green efficiency of water resources by applying the Super-efficiency SBM model, to analyze its spatial correlation pattern, and to explore the driving mechanism of green efficiency of water resources by making use of the geographical weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that there was ignificant positive spatial correlation and uneven spatial distribution of the green efficiency of water resources in China. Compared with the OLS model (the regression coefficient obtained by the model just represents the average characteristics of the overall green efficiency of water resources), the GWR model proves that there were spatial differences in the influence of various factors on the green efficiency of water resources. Generally speaking, industrial structure, industrial and agricultural development level, transportation infrastructure construction, environmental protection investment and science and technology conversion rate had a positive effect on the green efficiency of water resources, while the factors, including per capita water resources, population size and pollutant emissions, had a restraining influence. Social factors and environmental factors had a particularly obvious effect on the green efficiency of water resources. In addition, due to the large potential of the technology market turnover, the regions should step up efforts to increase investment of scientific research and focus on the transformation of scientific research results so as to make technology a new growth pole of green efficiency of water resources. In terms of spatial differences, water endowment and population size had significant impact on the green efficiency of water resources in the western region, and industrial structure, water utilization structure and transportation infrastructure posed a positive effect in the eastern region. This study is of great practical significance to solve water shortage and to formulate relevant policies suitable for the development of all regions.