泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应

基于资源消耗和环境污染视角构建城市资源环境压力评价指标体系,探讨2000-2017年泛长三角城市资源环境压力时空演化特征及城镇化的门槛效应与作用机理。研究发现:①泛长三角地区资源环境压力呈逐年递增趋势,以"快速-中速-慢速"的节奏持续走高;②各城市资源环境压力均不同程度由低压力向高压力类型演替,并呈现"东高西低、南高北低"格局;③经济增长、工业化水平及人口密度存在显著门槛效应,消费水平、固定资产投资、进出口贸易对资源环境压力具有显著正向作用,能源强度降低和技术创新水平提高有利于减轻资源环境压力,而环境规制和能源消费的影响作用不显著。

The Evolution Characteristics and Threshold Effects of the Resource and Environmental Pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Cities

It is an important subject regarding sustainable urban development to promote and influence the coordination between ongoing economic development and the natural environment. From the perspective of resource consumption and environmental pollution, this article builds the evaluation index system of the urban resource and environmental pressure exploring the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban environmental pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region between 2000 and 2017. It also analyzes the threshold effects and mechanism of industrialization upon environmental pressure, based on the use of the panel threshold regression model. This paper has concluded three findings as follows. Firstly, the pressure in the region were experiencing a steady annual increase, with its growth rate following the rhythm of fast-medium-slow. Secondly, the environmental pressure of all cities had seen a steady increase year on year, though to varying degrees and at significantly different growth rates: the growth rates of economically backward areas were much faster than that of the economically developed cities. The cities with different types of environmental pressure formed the layout of extending from low pressure areas to high pressure areas, with the general pattern of ‘higher in the east and south, whilst lower in the west and north’. Thirdly, as the panel threshold regression model clearly shows, a significant threshold effect had taken place with regards to Economic growth, industrialization, population density. Consumption level, fixed asset investment, import and export trade exert a remarkable positive effect on environmental pressure. The reduction of energy intensity and the improvement of technological innovation are conducive to the reduction of pressure on resources and environment, whilst environmental regulation and energy consumption show no sign of a significant impact.