海南省连片贫困地区农户致贫风险分析

农村贫困与减贫是世界性难题,也是中国各级政府高度重视并着力解决的重大民生问题。基于农户及致贫风险的文献梳理,从区位、社会和劳动力3个要素维度构建了农户致贫风险分析的二元Logistic回归模型。采用484户农户问卷调查数据,分析了海南省连片贫困地区农户的致贫风险,提出有效减贫和持续发展对策。研究发现:①海南连片贫困地区生态环境良好但贫困发生率较高,家庭劳动力较充裕但受教育水平较低,子女教育支出负担重,因病因残致贫比例较高,女性务工人口较多,农户自身脱贫致富的发展动力不足。②海拔高度200 m以下、男性户主、拥有残疾或患病成员、务工人口比例低、女性务工人员占比高、以及单位劳动力供养学生数高的农户具有更大的致贫风险。③研究未发现女性户主、少数民族、低受教育水平户主、大型规模家庭有更高的致贫风险,女性成员比例、抚养比等因素对农户贫困影响较小。激发农户内生动力、大力发展特色化和规模化农业、增加农户就业机会、加强针对农民工、女性务工人员和病残群体的社会保障等减贫政策制定实施是实现脱贫攻坚目标的重要途径。

Risks of Poverty of Farmers in Contiguous Poverty-stricken Areas in Hainan Province

Rural poverty and poverty alleviation are world-wide problems, which are also major livelihood issues that Chinese governments at all levels attach great importance to and focus on. Hainan Province is one of the key areas for poverty alleviation and development in China where has 5 national poverty counties and 6 provincial-level poverty alleviation and development work centers. Different from the deep poverty areas in northwestern and central and western China where have poor living conditions, lack of resources, and frequent natural disasters, Hainan Province is rich in natural resources and good in ecological environment. It is an important producing area for winter vegetable, tropical fruits and tropical economic crops in China. Although the total number of poor people in this region is small, the incidence of poverty is high, and the family characteristics of farmers and the mechanism of poverty show obvious regional differences. Based on the concept of poverty and risk, this study explains the risk and impact factors of farmers' poverty. Furthermore, a binary logistic regression model for farmers' risk analysis of poverty is constructed from 3 dimensions: location, society and labor. Based on the questionnaire survey data of 484 households, this article analyzes the poverty risk of farmers in contiguous poverty-stricken areas in Hainan Province, and proposes effective poverty alleviation and sustainable development strategies in the area. Study found that, primarily, the contiguous poverty-stricken areas in Hainan have such general characteristics of a good ecological environment but a high incidence of poverty, a relatively abundant family labor force but a low level of education, a heavy burden on children's education expenditure, a high proportion of poverty due to illness, a large female working population and the lack of development motivation of farmers themselves to get rid of poverty and get rich. Secondly, households living below 200 m above sea level, having male heads of households, disabilities or sick members, low proportion of migrant workers, high ratio of female migrant workers to total migrant workers, and high student labor ratios are at greater risk of poverty. The study hasn’t found that households with female heads of households, low-educated household heads, minority families, and large-scale families have higher risk of poverty. Factors such as ratio of female member and dependency ratio have less impact on farmers' poverty. It is an important way to achieve the goal of poverty alleviation by stimulating the endogenous motivation of farmers, vigorously developing characteristic and large-scale agriculture, increasing employment opportunities for farmers, and strengthening the social security for migrant workers, female migrant workers and sick and disabled groups.