四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程及影响因素分析

拐卖儿童犯罪给受害者带来身心创伤、给家庭带来巨大悲痛和长期困扰,已成为社会和学界关注的焦点问题。该领域犯罪地理学视角的研究兴起较晚,且主要侧重宏观整体分析,当前亟需聚焦高发源地和重点人群作精细解析。为此,论文针对中国拐卖犯罪重灾源区四川省,综合运用数理统计、空间分析、文本分析、案例分析等方法探究四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程与影响因素。研究发现：① 数量上,被拐男童明显多于女童,被拐儿童主要来自乡村,虽呈现1~6岁和14~17岁的“双峰”型特征,但整体趋向低龄化。② 时间上,犯罪年际分布大致呈倒“V”型波动态势,高发期为1981—2000年;犯罪年内分布集中于夏半年,周内分布周末高发,日期分布每月1日的被拐儿童数量最多。③ 空间上,存在一个被拐高发区和多个被拐次高发区;县域尺度上的犯罪格局呈现“高—高”和“低—低”聚集;随着时间的变化,拐出热点区不断向南部和东部蔓延;宏观贩运路径上,向中东部地区分散拐入,华北和华南是重点拐入的“南北两汇”。④ 对1981—2000年犯罪高发期的原因解析发现,受教育水平与城乡收入差距是影响拐卖儿童犯罪的主导因素。

Spatiotemporal change and influencing factors of child trafficking crime in Sichuan Province

Child trafficking crime causes physical and psychological trauma to the victims and great grief and long-term trouble to the families of the victims. Therefore, it has attracted the attention of the society and the academic community. Research from the perspective of criminal geography in this field started relatively late and mainly focused on the macro analysis, so it is urgent to focus on high-incidence areas and key groups for detailed analysis. Based on the data of Sichuan Province—the most severely affected area for trafficking crime in China—this study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of child trafficking crime by means of text analysis, mathematical statistics, spatial analysis, and case analysis. The study found that: 1) The trafficked children were mainly from rural areas, and the trafficked males were significantly more than females. The trafficked children tended to be young, showing a double-peaks pattern. 2) Temporally, the annual change of crime showed a roughly inverted V-shaped pattern, which frequently occurred during 1981-2000. The trafficking crime was concentrated in the summer half year. 3) Spatially, the number of trafficked children was unevenly distributed. There was a high-incidence area (Chengdu) and a few smaller high-incidence areas. At the county scale, the crime pattern presented the characteristics of "high-high" and "low-low" distribution and trafficking-out hotspots continue to spread south and east. The trafficking routes presented a decentralized trafficking-in to the east feature, which showed that South China and North China were the main trafficking-in areas. 4) Through the analysis of the causes of the high incidence of crimes from 1981 to 2000, it was found that education level and the income gap between urban and rural areas were the main factors that affect the crime of child trafficking.