新型城镇化的人地耦合异速增长分析方法

在新型城镇化背景下的城市人口规模与用地面积变化具有复杂性,研究两种要素城镇化水平的相对增长关系,有助于探索人地耦合发展的协同态势及变化动因。本文选取广州市2000-2015年的Landsat时序影像与2000、2010和2015年的人口普查与年鉴数据,在街道(乡镇)尺度上计算人口土地城镇化耦合指数识别4种耦合类型,并在此基础上提出年均增长率异速关系拟合方法。研究结果表明:①2000-2015年广州市街道(乡镇)人口和土地城镇化呈现明显的圈层结构(核心、内、外圈层)特征,4种人地耦合类型的异速增长分别呈现正异速、负异速、负幂律3种形式,证明人地耦合分类的异速增长建模方法有助于分析人地城镇化的动态演化过程;②基于人地耦合指数的异速标度分析表明,核心圈层-内圈层-外圈层结构上分别形成了高度集约-集约-相对粗放式扩张的发展格局,结合城市更新改造的空间分析,说明这一特色新型城镇化模式在广州具有一定成效,已初步形成了核心圈层与内圈层协同发展的态势,但需要注意防控外圈层的粗放型增长。研究结果可为新型城镇化理论内涵的认知探索和广州市案例的实证研究提供支持。

Analytical Method for Man-Land Coupling Allometric Growth under the Background of New-type Urbanization

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the complicated growth between population and land use in urban areas has attracted increasing attention. Under the background of new urbanization, studying the relative growth relationship between the urbanization levels of these two elements of different dimension is beneficial to exploring both the degree of coordination and the driving force of the man-land coupling development. In this paper, we calculate the index of man-land coupling urbanization to identity four types of coupling on the street (township) scale, which is based on the Landsat time series images, the census and yearbook data in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2015; To further quantify the degree of coupling and analyze their spatial pattern, we developed the allometric growth model fitting the annual average growth rate of man and urbanized land for the four categories, including increasing and decreasing ratio of man and land, increasing ratio of man and decreasing ratio of land, decreasing ratio of man and increasing ratio of land. The new model can delineate the more significant allometric growth for the street (township) units of the different categories than that analysis for the whole area. The main results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the coupling development population and land urbanization on the street (township) scale in Guangzhou shows obvious characteristics of three-tier spatial structure. The allometric growth models of four types of man-land coupling show three kinds of equations, including positive allometric, negative allometric and negative power-law, which proves that the classification of allometric growth is helpful to analyze the dynamics co-evolution of man-land urbanization; (2) The allometric growth patterns of the Guangzhou's circle structure reveal the man-land coupling's harmonious situation of urbanization. The core circle, inner circle and outer circle respectively presents the development of compact, intensive expansion, and extensive expansion. In addition, through the joint spatial analysis with the renovation and transformation in old urban areas, it indicates that the development of urban renewal has certain positive effects in Guangzhou. The core and inner circle have formed the harmonious growth development trend preliminarily. Nevertheless, the outer circle is obviously developing towards the accelerated expansion of population and land during the late period, which needs to be paid more attention to preventing the phenomenon that the suburbanization of the outer circle is transformed into extensive growth. To conclude, the research results can provide support for both the cognitive exploration of the new urbanization theory connotation and the empirical research of the Guangzhou case.