中国能源行业碳排放强度下降过程中的省际减排成效评价

采用矫正系数衡量各省份的减排有效性,根据各省份能源行业碳排放强度及产值份额构建自上而下的全国能源行业碳排强度恒等式,运用LMDI-Ⅰ分解方法获取各省份、各省份能源行业碳排放强度及产值份额对全国能源行业碳排放强度下降的贡献率,并遵循“减排有效性-碳排放强度贡献-省份综合贡献-减排有效性与省份综合贡献关系”的思路对中国能源行业碳排放强度下降过程中各省份的减排成效进行评价。结果显示：① 中国能源行业碳排放强度呈逐年下降趋势,2016年能源行业碳排放强度较2005年下降45%。② 超过一半的省份为减排有效区且数量呈增加趋势,而减排未达标的省份多数为经济欠发达地区,各省份间的减排路径存在显著差异。③ 多数省份能源行业碳排放强度的贡献率呈上升趋势,省份差异逐渐缩小。④ 省份减排综合贡献的进位赶超势头强劲,绝大多数省份对全国能源行业碳排放强度的下降作出了贡献,且多个省份的综合贡献等级呈正向发展,东部地区是主要的降排贡献区。⑤ 减排成效良好省份数量最多,中等区多散布于东部沿海地区及少数内陆地区,欠佳区在西部地区空间格局保持相对稳定。未来各省份不仅要根据自身的减排成效特征因地制宜的选择低碳发展道路,还应与全国碳排放强度的下降形成良性互动。

Evaluation on the effectiveness of provincial emission reduction in the process of carbon emission intensity decline in China's energy industry

In this paper, the correction coefficient was applied to measure energy industry efficiency of emission reduction in each province. According to the energy industry carbon emission intensity and output value share of each province, the identity of national carbon emission intensity in China's energy industry was established from top to bottom, and the contribution rate of each province, energy industry carbon emission intensity and output value share in each province to the decline of national carbon emission intensity in energy industry was obtained by using LMDI-I decomposition method. Following the idea of “emission reduction efficiency - carbon emission intensity contribution - comprehensive contribution by province - the relationship between provincial emission reduction efficiency and the comprehensive contribution of province”, the emission reduction effectiveness of each province in the process of carbon emission intensity decline in China energy industry was evaluated. The results indicate that (1) the carbon emission intensity in China' energy industry shows a downward trend year by year, and the carbon emission intensity decreased by 45% in 2016 than that in 2005. (2) More than half of the provinces are efficiency areas for emission reduction and the number of provinces is increasing, while most of the provinces that do not meet the emission reduction standards are located in economically underdeveloped areas, and there are significant differences in emission reduction paths between provinces. (3) The contribution rate of energy industry carbon emission intensity in most provinces shows an upward trend, and the regional differences gradually decrease. (4) The competing momentum of comprehensive contribution by province is strong, and most provinces have contributed to the decline of carbon emission intensity in China energy industry, and the eastern region is the main contribution area, where the comprehensive contribution grade of many provinces develops positively. (5) The number of provinces with good emission reduction effectiveness is the largest, the general areas are scattered in the eastern coastal area and a few inland areas, and the spatial pattern of the poor areas remains stable in the western region. In the future, provinces should not only choose the low-carbon development path according to their own emission reduction effectiveness characteristics, but also form a benign interaction with the decline of national carbon emission intensity.