东北三省县级尺度人口老龄化空间格局演变及类型划分

人口老龄化正成为制约东北振兴发展的突出问题。综合运用静态指标(老龄化系数、老少比)、动态指标(年龄结构变化、老年人口与非老年人口数量变化、老年人口增速)、空间自相关等测度指标和方法,分析了2000-2010年东北三省县级尺度人口老龄化空间格局的演变特征,并对人口老龄化类型进行了划分。主要结论如下:①从静态指标来看,10 a间无论是老龄化系数还是老少比,均表现出全面升级态势,区域差异更加突出,空间分布由"均质"向"极化"转变。辽中南城市群、资源型城市市辖区和部分边境市县成为人口老龄化和少子化的集中分布区。②动态指标来看,10 a间四大城市的市辖区、大城市周边市县、资源型城市市辖区、边境市县等区域,在年龄结构变化、老年与非老年人口数量变化、老年人口增速方面存在显著差异。③综合运用静态和动态指标将东北三省划分为5种老龄化类型:稀释老化型、残留老化型、就地老化型、潜在老化型和未老化型。对每种类型的老龄化特征进行了总结,并对典型区域提出了具有针对性的政策建议。

Spatial Patterns Evolution and Classification of Population Aging in the Three Provinces of Northeast China Based on the County Scale

Population aging is becoming a prominent problem restricting the revitalization and development of Northeast China. This paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatial pattern of population aging at the county in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2000 to 2010, and classifies the types of population aging by using static indicators (aging coefficient, the ratio of the aged and the young), dynamic indicators (age structure change, the number change of the elderly population and the non-elderly population, the growth rate of the elderly population), spatial autocorrelation and other measurement indicators and methods. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) In terms of static indicators, the aging coefficient and the ratio of the aged and the young all show an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2010, with more prominent regional differences, and the spatial distribution changed from ‘homogeneous’ to ‘polarized’. Urban agglomeration, resource-based urban districts and some border cities and counties in central and southern Liaoning Province have become the concentrated distribution areas of aging population and low birth rate. 2) In terms of dynamic indicators, during the study period, there are significant differences in age structure change, number change of the elderly population, non-elderly population and growth rate of the elderly population among the municipal districts of the four core cities, surrounding cities and counties of core cities, resource-based urban districts and border cities and counties. 3) Using static and dynamic indicators, the aging types in the three northeastern provinces are divided into five types, named aging with dilution, residual aging, aging in place, potential aging and non-aging. This paper summarizes the characteristics of each type of aging, and puts forward targeted policy recommendations for typical regions.