后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究

2017年以来,全球石油消费持续疲软,消费增速呈逐渐下降的趋势,新冠肺炎疫情对石油需求的打击更是"雪上加霜".本文回顾了疫情发生以来国际原油价格及大型油气公司股票价格的走势,探讨了疫情对全球石油需求和供应市场的影响,研判了短期及中长期全球石油供需格局,得出了三点结论:(1)疫情对全球石油需求产生重大冲击,预计2020年...

Research on the New Pattern of Global Oil Supply and Demand after the Pandemic

Since 2017, global oil consumption has been persistently weak, and the growth rate of consumption has been gradually declining. The impact of COVID-19 on oil demand has been "even worse". This paper reviews the trends of international crude oil prices and stock prices of large oil and gas companies since the outbreak of the epidemic, explores the impact of the epidemic on global oil demand and supply markets, studies the short-term and mid-to-long-term global oil supply and demand patterns, and draws three conclusions: firstly, the epidemic has had a major impact on global oil demand, which is expected to drop by 5% in 2020 compared with 2019. In the future, with the gradually recovery of the global economy, global oil consumption will slowly recover, and it is estimated that global oil consumption will reach a peak of 4.87 billion tons by 2030. Secondly, in the next 3~5 years, global oil production will be greater than the demand, and the global oil market will remain oversupplied for a long time to come. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, if the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate at a low price, it will cause insufficient investment in upstream exploration and development, the output of some old oil fields in the UK, Russia, Asian countries and other countries will continue to decline, and the global oil market will become tighter.