ＰＲＥＣＩＳ模式对陕西气候模拟能力验证

利用常规气象观测及卫星、雷达、闪电定位、自动站等资料对这次过程的成因进行了分析。结果表明：过程前期的持续性高温为暴雨的产生积累了能量，副热带高压（以下简称副高）的突然北跳及其西北边缘的西南暖湿气流为暴雨的产生提供了源源不断的水汽和不稳定能量；弱冷空气和中低层切变线触发了这次强对流暴雨天气过程；卫星云图上，副高边缘不断有对流云泡生成、向北输送并发展，促进了中尺度强对流系统的生成与发展，对提前预报有一定的指导意义；地闪主要出现在5880gpm与5840gpm线覆盖的范围，在5880gpm与5840gpm线之间，地闪密度的空间分布与降水量的空间分布有较好的对应关系，负地闪主要出现在5880gpm线一侧，正地闪靠近5840gpm线；地闪频数峰值超前降水量峰值0～2h，这对单站l临近强降水预报很有意义。

Analysis of First Rainstorm On June 30,2010 in Shanxi Province

The causes of the rainstorm in June 30, 2010 in Shanxi province was analyzed by using meteorological observation, satellite, radar, lightning locating and automatic weather stations data. The result show： The continuous high-temperature accumulated energy before rainstorm and it supplied the constant water vapor and unstable energy that was suddenly northward jumping of subtropical high and southwest warm and wet flow in northwest edge. The weak cold air and the middle and low level shear triggered the rainstorm. There was convective cloud at the edge of subtropical high in satellite image and it was important to forecast. It was useful for the single station instance forecasting that the peak of ground flash frequency leaded the peak of precipitation 0-2 hours.