| SD模型在洱海流域营养物削减策略研究中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓臣,李小平,陈小华,程曦,王菲菲,陈无歧. SD模型在洱海流域营养物削减策略研究中的应用[J]. 湖泊科学, 2013, 25(5): 655-664 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓臣 李小平 陈小华 程曦 王菲菲 陈无歧 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062,华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062,上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233,卫世敦环保咨询 上海 有限公司, 上海 200032,华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062,华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07106-001)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对洱海富营养化问题,本文在深入分析洱海流域营养物输运转移特征的基础上,应用VENSIM-DSS构建了洱海流域的社会、经济、技术、环境SD耦合模型.模型由7个子系统组成,确定了一套适用于洱海流域的耦合模型特征参数.对入湖TN、TP进行追根溯源,模拟结果表明洱海流域入湖TN主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和干湿沉降子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TN的88%;入湖TP主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和水土流失子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TP的89%.以此为基础通过设置4种不同的营养物削减情景,模拟未来10年入湖TN、TP的变化,并通过构建的政策评价子系统和DILLON模型定量评价不同削减方案的可行性,提出最优洱海流域营养物削减方案.
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| 关 键 词： | 洱海 SD模型 TN、TP削减策略 VENSIM-DSS软件 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-12-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-02-28 |
Reduction strategies for TN and TP based on system dynamics model (SD) in Lake Erhai |
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| LIU Xiaochen,LI Xiaoping,CHEN Xiaohu,CHENG Xi,WANG Feifei and CHEN Wuqi. Reduction strategies for TN and TP based on system dynamics model (SD) in Lake Erhai[J]. Journal of Lake Science, 2013, 25(5): 655-664 |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiaochen LI Xiaoping CHEN Xiaohu CHENG Xi WANG Feifei CHEN Wuqi |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China,State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China,Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, P. R. China,Weston Solution Co. Ltd., Shanghai 200032, P. R. China,State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China and State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | In order to solve the problem of lake eutrophication in Lake Erhai,a model based on the analysis of nutrients transport was applied to establish society,economy,technology and environment coupling SD model for Lake Erhai drainage area using VENSIM-DSS.The SD model is consisted of seven subsystems searching for the sources of TN and TP.The research established a set of parameters applicable for the Lake Erhai coupling model.The stimulation results showed 88% of TN was from the subsystems of plantation,animal husbandry,sewage and dry and wet deposition,and 89% of TP was from the subsystems of plantation,animal husbandry,sewage,soil and water loss in Lake Erhai catchment.Based on the results,four kinds of nutrient reduction solutions were set to stimulate the changes of TN and TP for the next ten years.The feasibilities of different reduction solutions were quantitatively estimated by policy evaluation subsystem and DILLON model to put forward the optimal nutrient reduction solutions for Lake Erhai catchment. |
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| Keywords: | Lake Erhai SD model reduction strategies of TN and TP VENSIM-DSS software |
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