龙川县近50年气温变化的特征分析

根据龙川县气象站1961—2010年气温资料,利用线性回归方程、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析龙川县近50年气温变化特征,结果表明:龙川县气温变化呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.020 6℃/年;四季度气温都有不同程度的上升趋势,下半年气温上升趋势大于上半年;极端高温天气日数呈现上升趋势,极端低温天气日数呈现下降趋势,极端低温日数下降趋势明显大于极端高温日数上升趋势。

Analysis of the Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Longchuan County over the Past 50 Years

Based on the temperature data of a meteorological station in Longchuan County from 1961 to2010 and with the methods of linear regression equations and Mann-Kendall abruptness test,this work studies the characteristics of temperature variation in Longchuan County over the time. The results are shown as follows. The variation of temperature shows an increasing trend with a climate tendency of 0. 020 6℃ per year. Varying in the four seasons,the rising trend is larger in the second half of the year than in the first.The number of days with extremely high temperature also tends to rise while that of extremely low temperature shows a trend of decreasing,with the latter trend being much larger than the former one.