The interannual leading modes of the extratropical variability in the Southern Hemisphere simulated by the ECHAM-4 atmospheric model |
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Authors: | A F Carril A Navarra |
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Institution: | (1) ISAO, Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e dell'Oceano, Via Gobetti 101 Bologna, Italy E-mail: a.carril@isao.bo.cnr.it, IT;(2) INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisicae Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, IT |
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Abstract: | An ensemble of twenty-three 14-year experiments conducted with the ECHAM-4 GCM has been examined to test the model's capability
to simulate the principal modes of interannual variability. The integrations were performed under specified monthly SST between
1979–1993. The analysis was focused on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis
(EOF) using seasonal anomaly fields has been performed to isolate the principal modes that dominate the southern extratropical
variability at the interannual time scale. Leading patterns of 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) have been compared with
those estimated from the ECMWF re-analysis dataset. The model is able to adequately reproduce the spatial pattern of the annular
mode, but it represents the temporal variations of the oscillation less satisfactorily. The model simulation of the Pacific
South American (PSA) pattern is better, both in the shape of the pattern and in the temporal evolution. To verify if the capability
of the model to adequately simulate the temporal oscillation of the propagating patterns is related to the increased influence
of the tropical external forcing, covarying SST-atmospheric modes have been identified by singular value decomposition (SVD).
In winter (July-August-September, JAS) the tropical SST variability is highly correlated with the ENSO mode. In summer (January-February-March,
JFM) the strength of the teleconnections is related to strong westerly anomalies, disrupted by a meridional out of phase relation
near to South America. The large size of the ensemble was exploited by comparing the time-varying model spread and degrees
of freedom of the simulated extratropical circulation. Results show that when the extratropical circulation has a few degrees
of freedom, the reproducibility is relatively low and the ensemble is governed by a fairly robust zonally symmetric structure
of dispersion.
Received: 9 May 2000 / Accepted: 30 January 2001 |
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