Simulating multi-decadal variability of Caspian Sea level changes using regional climate model outputs

The Caspian Sea is the largest enclosed body of water on earth, covering approximately 4×10⁵ km² and sharing its coast with five countries (Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan). Because it has no outlet to the ocean the Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone rapid shifts in response to climatic forcings, and these have been devastating for the surrounding countries. In this paper we present the initial results of a modeling effort aimed at building a regional climate model for the Caspian Sea basin suitable to study the response of the CSL to interdecadal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. Simulations are performed using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model RegCM at a 50 km grid spacing for the period 1948–1990. During this period an abrupt shift occurred in the sea level after 1977, when the CSL rose about two meters until the early 1990s. Using a simple equation of hydrologic balance for the Caspian Sea basin to predict the CSL, we show that the model is able to reproduce the observed CSL changes at interannual to multidecadal scales. The correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed annual CSL changes is 0.91 and the model is able to reproduce the abrupt shift in CSL which occurred after 1977. Analysis of the climatologies before and after 1977 indicate that the CSL rise was mostly due to an increase in precipitation over the northern basin and a decrease in evaporation over the sea, primarily during the warm season. We plan to apply our model to the investigation of the response of the CSL to anthropogenic climate forcings.