Climate change,weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec |
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Authors: | Juan Jose Almaraz Fazli Mabood Xiaomin Zhou Edward G Gregorich Donald L Smith |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, H9X 3V9, Canada;(2) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Environmental Health, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0C6, Canada |
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Abstract: | Climate change has led to increased temperatures, and simulation models suggest that this should affect crop production in
important agricultural regions of the world. Nations at higher latitudes, such as Canada, will be most affected. We studied
the relationship between climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and corn yield trends over a period of 33 years
for the Monteregie region of south-western Quebec using historical yield and climate records and statistical models. Growing
season mean temperature has increased in Monterregie, mainly due to increased September temperature. Precipitation did not
show any clear trend over the 33 year period. Yield increased about 118 kg ha−1 year−1 from 1973 to 2005 (under normal weather conditions) due mainly to changes in technology (genetics and management). Two climate
variables were strongly associated with corn yield variability: July temperature and May precipitation. These two variables
explain more than a half of yield variability associated with climate. In conclusion, July temperatures below normal and May
precipitation above normal have negative effects on corn yield, and the growing seasons have warmed, largely due to increases
in the September temperature. |
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