深圳市雷暴天气气候变化特征分析

利用深圳市1953~2005年逐日雷暴资料,通过数理统计、线性分析、突变分析、小波分析等方法,得出了深圳市雷暴天气的气候变化特征。结果表明:深圳市属于雷暴多发区,53a平均雷暴日数为68.2d;年雷暴日数年际变化辐度大,最多年为103d,而最少年仅为47d,最大值与最小值相差1倍多;初雷一般出现在3月上旬,终雷一般出现在10月中旬,而且初雷的发生,有越来越早的趋势,终雷结束时间有越来越晚的趋势;全年各月均有出现雷暴的可能,但雷暴的出现有着明显的季节性变化,主要集中出现在夏季,冬季雷暴出现的概率非常低,且53a来雷暴的发生有逐渐减少的趋势,气候倾向率为-1.8d/10a。另外深圳市雷暴的年际变化存在着准3a较短周期和11a、19a左右的长周期振荡。

The Analysis for the Climatic Change Characteristic of Thunderstorm Weather in Shenzhen

This paper uses the daily thunderstorm data of shenzhen during 1953-2005 to obtain the climatic change characteristic of the thunderstorm weather in shenzhen by means of mathematical statistic,linearity analysis,sudden change analysis,wavelet analysis and so on.The result indicates that Shenzhen locates in the high frequency zone of thunderstorm,53a average days of thunderstorm are 68.2d;the range of its annual change is big,the biggest is 103d,and the smallest is 47d.their difference is more than one time.The first thunderstorm occurs in the beginningof March,the ending of thunderstorm is in mid-october,moreover,the first thunderstorm is getting to occur more and more early,the ending of thunderstorm is getting more and more late.The thunderstorm may occur in each month of the whole year.but it has the obvious seasonal change.most is in summer.and in winter the probability is extremely low.53a thundorstorm tends to reduce gradually.the rate of its climate tendency is-1.8d/10d.In addition,the annual change of the thunderstorm shows 3a short cycle and 11a,19a long cycle vibration.