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| 太阳活动区活动性的模糊预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 周树荣,黄光力,吴琴娣,方成. 太阳活动区活动性的模糊预测[J]. 天文学进展, 2002, 20(2): 122-129 |
| 作者姓名： | 周树荣 黄光力 吴琴娣 方成 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院紫金山天文台,南京,210008;中国科学院国家天文台,北京,100012 2. 中国科学院紫金山天文台,南京,210008 3. 南京大学天文系,南京,210093 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重大项目(19833050)资助课题，国家自然科学基金重点项目(49990451)资助课题 |
| 摘 要： | 运用模糊数学的理论和方法对太阳活动区的活动性进行了预测。为了综合评估和预测活动区的活动性，根据耀斑与黑子群特征因子间的关系，构造了隶属函数。通过数据处理与分析，得到了对活动区活动性较好的预测结果，预测的准确性＞95%。已成功编制了太阳活动预报的数据处理实用软件，根据黑子群的特征因子值，即刻就能得到活动区活动性的预报结果，预测结果表明模糊综合评估方法能很好地预报太阳活动。 |
| 关 键 词： | 太阳活动区 活动性 模糊预测 黑子 耀斑 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-03-07 |
The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Rrgiopn |
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| Zhou Shurong, Huang Guangli, Wu Qindi Fang Cheng. The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Rrgiopn[J]. Progress In Astronomy, 2002, 20(2): 122-129 | |
| Authors: | Zhou Shurong Huang Guangli Wu Qindi Fang Cheng |
| Affiliation: | Zhou Shurong1,2 Huang Guangli1,2 Wu Qindi1 Fang Cheng4 |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the theory and method of fuzzy mathematics are applied to forecast the activityof solar active region. According to the correlation between the flares and the characteristic factorsof the sunspot groups, the membership functions are constructed to comprehensively evaluate andpredict the activity of solar active regions. The precise results were obtained by data reductionand analysis with the accuracy higher than 95% after comparing with observations. An applicablesoftware of the data reduction is successfully compiled for the so1ar activity prediction. Thus,when the values of characteristic factors of the sunspot groups are inputted into the computer,the predicting results of the activity of solar active regions are instantly obtained. Forecast resultsindicate that the method of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a good one for the solar activityprediction. |
| Keywords: | fuzzy forecast-activity of the active region-sun: sunspot-sun: flares |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |