基于改进型拉开档次法的泥石流危险度评价实例

泥石流危险度评价是泥石流研究的热点和难点问题。运用极大不相关法剔除泥石流危险度评价中提供信息重叠过多的因子，并应用主观赋权的序关系分析法（G1法）对客观赋权的拉开档次法进行改进，从而获得了一种新的泥石流危险度评价方法。以吉林省和龙市地质灾害调查与区划中的10条泥石流危险度评价实例进行验证并与传统方法对比，结果表明：该方法操作简便，其中4条处于分级点附近的泥石流危险度比传统方法高出一个等级，改进型拉开档次法能体现出传统评价方法中同级别泥石流危险度的差异性，评价结果与实际情况吻合得更好。结论虽然偏于安全，但能为有针对地开展泥石流灾害防治工作提供更科学的指导，可为泥石流危险度评价提供一种新的评价方法。

Examples of Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on Improved Scatter Degree

Debris flow risk assessment has become a focus and difficult problem. Multiple correlation analysis of several factors about debris flow hazard assessment is carried out based on the infinite irrelevance method, it eliminates information overlap too much. The weights for factors are determined based on using subjective rank correlation analysis (G1 method) to improve objective scatter degree method. Thus a new method for risk assessment of debris flow is obtained. The method is verified by an example including 10 debris flows which combined geology disaster investigation and zoning of Helong City, Jilin Province, and contrasted with the traditional method. The result indicate that the improved scatter degree is easy operated and has advantages comparing with two methods. Four of all debris flow valleys are higher hazard level which close to the critical of traditional method. It can embody difference between the same level hazard in traditional method, and the evaluation results are better in agreement with reality.